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Future cruise trends outlined in new report

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Cruise capacity to reach more than 30 million by 2022
The global cruise industry will have capacity to carry more than 30 million passengers by 2022, based on the current order book from cruise lines. But cruise lines will probably have to keep focused on the Asia-Pacific region to fill fleets.
The current global capacity is 22 million passengers, according to the latest Cruise Industry News Annual Report, but 47 new ship orders will lead to a 36% capacity increase over the next seven years.
New ships will include nine that Carnival Corporation recently signed a memorandum of understanding for, to take delivery of between 2019 and 2022.
More new-build orders could come within the same timeframe from other lines. This includes Royal Caribbean, which is expected to order two more Quantum-class ships; Norwegian “so that the brand does not lose its growth momentum”; Crystal Cruises, which has already announced such plans; and the new start-up Virgin Cruise Line. Viking Cruises also wants to add to its fledgling fleet, to have 10 ocean ships by 2020.
However, while a 36% capacity rise might raise eyebrows, the report notes that the sector grew by around the same percentage over the last seven years, in 2008-15. This was predominantly driven by Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, including Australia, as well as South America and North America. Growth in North America and Europe has since slowed and in South America it has declined.
So cruise lines are likely to keep their focus on Asia-Pacific, particularly China, which will have to generate five million passengers a year by 2022 to fill the fleets.
Meanwhile, the luxury cruise market could see a 53% spike in passenger capacity in 2015-18, driven largely by new ships for Regent Seven Seas and Seabourn, as well as possibly by Viking. The luxury sector currently consists of 26 ships. By 2018, this could rise to 32 ships, pushing up passenger capacity from 336,000 to 515,000.
TTG Digital

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