Global travel industry set for decade of growth
The global travel industry is set for a period of sustained growth over the next decade, driven in part by China’s share of global outbound travel, reaching as much as 20% by 2023, a new report on global travel trends reveals.
Shaping the Future of Travel, subtitled “macro trends driving industry growth over the next decade”, predicts an optimistic macro-economic outlook for global travel over the next 10 years, with the industry projected to outstrip global GDP by around 2%, growing at 5.4% per year.
The study also claims that global travel is now set to grow at a significantly faster rate than during the financial crisis, where growth was just 4.1% per annum.
China’s growth in outbound travel, which stood at just 1% in 2005, will enable it to overtake the US to become the world’s largest outbound travel market this year. The number of Chinese households able to afford overseas travel will more than double in the next 10 years to reach 220 million. China will also become the biggest domestic travel market by 2017.
Forecasts also show that other large emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Russia and Turkey will each average more than 5% annual growth over the next 10 years.
The industry study was written by Oxford Economics and commissioned by Amadeus.
Other key findings:
Business travel will bounce back as links between east and west stimulate new demand. But western short-haul business travel will not reach pre-2008 levels until 2018. Asia will account for 55% of global business travel growth in the next ten years.
Air travel growth will be led by emerging economies such as India, Indonesia and Russia, as non-OECD air travel is set to overtake that of OECD members for the first time, to become largest source of global air traffic by 2023.
Demand for international hotel stays has outpaced demand for domestic stays since the recession, suggesting reduced domestic hotel spending is the new normal. At the same time, overnight visitor flows for Asia are set to grow nearly four times faster than Europe’s over the next ten years – but Europe will remain dominant.
[pictured: Hong Kong; photo by Marc Sievert, www.travelphotos24.com]